Wednesday 6th December, 2017. I’m babysitting my two nieces. It’s been a long day.

My brother, Ed: “Do you know, Uncle Will, that Martha is reading a particularly silly bedtime story at the moment?”

Me: “Is it as silly as the story of a man who got up at at 3 o’clock this morning to watch an all-but-lost cricket match?”

My six-year-old niece, Martha: “Even sillier than that.”

Sure enough, You’re a Bad Man, Mr Gum proved to be pretty silly, but it wasn’t until later on in the evening, and thanks to another book, that I came to realise that Martha was right.

The Power of the Dog* by Don Winslow was the book in question, and the words leapt off the page:

“He starts with the magic words, What if. The two most powerful words in any language.”

What if there’s such a thing as momentum in cricket? What if it ignores history and the difficulty of resuming an innings on a fifth day pitch against a relentless four-man attack with the Ashes on the line? What if it hasn’t been checked by Dawid Malan’s dismissal ten minutes before the close of play on day/night four?

What if it’s batting weather? What if the pitch is flat and the ball soft? What if the threat of Nathan Lyon’s off-spin is negated by England’s remaining right-handers? What if Joe Root and Chris Woakes are still at the crease in eighteen overs when the new ball is due? What if the new ball is seen off? What if Root converts his fifty into a century? What if it’s a “Daddy”? What if Moeen Ali plays a brilliant counter-attacking innings? What if it doesn’t matter that Jonny Bairstow is batting too low in the order? What if Stuart Broad overcomes The Fear and remembers how to bat? What if Jimmy Anderson won’t even need to bat? What if the travelling support continues to act as a twelfth man for England? What if the twelfth man is allowed to bat?

What if the pressure gets to Steve Smith? What if he lives to regret wasting those reviews on the fourth evening? And not enforcing the follow-on?  What if the risk of picking a four-man bowling attack is shown up? And picking a wicket keeper out of left field? What if an injury-prone quick pulls up lame? What if Mitchell Starc has a case of the Mitchell Johnsons and starts bowling to the left and the right? What if all the luck goes England’s way?

What if England win?

They won’t.

Yeah, but what if they do?

They won’t.

I know. I know. But what if they do? And what if I miss watching them do it? By choice. Of all the what ifs, that might just be the most powerful. Powerful enough for me to not ignore a 3am alarm. Powerful enough for me to get out of bed, put the kettle on and fire up the lap top.

What if. What is sport – what is life – without what if?

They didn’t win. Of course they didn’t, and all the whatiffery has turned to if only.

If only England had more pace. If only Mark Wood wasn’t the cricketing equivalent of Jack Wilshere. If only Toby Roland-Jones hadn’t suffered a stress fracture. If only the bowlers had pitched it up in the first innings. If only an English batsman had shown the same patience as Shaun Marsh. If only Alastair Cook could rediscover his once-in-a-lifetime 2010/11 form. If only one of his several thousand opening partners since then had nailed down a spot. If only James Taylor hadn’t had a career-ending (but thankfully not life-ending) heart condition. If only Root could convert more of his fifties into hundreds. If only James Vince could add some substance to the style, could learn from his mistakes and stop nicking off. If only the batting replacement in the squad wasn’t Gary Ballance. If only Bairstow had batted higher up the order. If only Moeen hadn’t missed the warm-up games with a side strain. If only he hadn’t cut his spinning finger. If only England had a world class spinner.

If only.

And that’s before we get to the biggest of the lot: if only Ben Stokes hadn’t got himself into a whole world of trouble. As loathe as I am to moralise, I can’t help feeling let down. For better or worse, Stokes is the heart and soul of this England team. He is also a fine player and helps balance the side. They are diminished without him, and, while I don’t think for a minute he should be playing with the threat of a criminal charge hanging over him, the same can be said of this Ashes series.

There is, however, another what if that is largely being ignored. What if Australia had enforced the follow-on? It’s not too much of a stretch to believe England would have lost by an innings. To go with the record ten-wicket rout at the Gabba. Having won the toss in both games, having yet to encounter the kind of fast, bouncy pitches that are supposed to be their undoing – the kind of pitch that most likely awaits in Perth – would Root still be claiming that England are still “massively in this series”?

That Root is remaining bullish (in public, at least) speaks volumes for his character, and comes as a welcome contrast to a haunted-looking Cook failing to convince that his side could take any positives from yet another drubbing on the last tour Down Under. That I so readily go for that comparison goes to show how much of a shadow is still being cast by that disastrous 2013/14 whitewash. Compared to that omnishambles, England are massively in this series. 2-0 down, but a better kind of 2-0. The strange thing about four years ago was that it was both a massive shock and, once it got going, an inevitability. We could yet end up with another whitewash, but the inevitability doesn’t seem as crushing and, since that fateful September night in Bristol, neither would be it be so shocking.

Still, there’s always, you know, what if…?

* Recommended reading, albeit not to your six-year-old niece.